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Abstract

Introduction

The Australian mortgage market has tentatively started to recover from the effects of the global financial crisis. Lending commitments have bounced back after a sharp fall in 2008, largely based on unusually high first time buyer activity. This report puts the current situation in its historical perspective, describes current trends in the market, and analyzes future developments.

Scope of this research

• Includes a comprehensive overview of the Australian residential mortgage market.
• Draws upon a large Datamonitor consumer survey to gain insights into the current mindset of the Australian mortgagor.
• Includes market overview, analysis of competitors and outline of future developments.
• Provides three scenario forecasts for lending commitments in Australia until 2013.

Research and analysis highlights

Lending commitments have grown strongly over the last ten years, but dipped in the first half of 2008. In July 2000 lending commitments of A$7.5 billion were granted, and in July 2009 A$22.5 billion of lending commitments were granted, representing a CAGR of 12.9% over the period.

First home buyer activity has surged as a result of government subsidies and a low interest rate environment. The absence of non-bank lenders and a consumer preference for the perceived safety of large domestic banks led to opportunities for the largest four banks.

Satisfaction levels have converged between different financial institutions in the last year. In both 2008 and 2009, NAB was the lowest rated bank in terms of proportion of quite or very satisfied mortgagors, and ANZ was the highest rated, but the difference between the institutions was greater in 2008.

Key reasons to purchase this research

• Plan your future strategy with confidence using Datamonitor' s scenario-based forecasts of Australian lending commitments until 2013.
• Understand the challenges the mortgage industry is facing, as well as the opportunities, at this pivotal time.
• In-depth analysis of how Australian providers approach different issues, allowing you to reassess your strategy.

Table of Contents

OVERVIEW

• Catalyst
• Summary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Market sizing and key issues
  • The Australian mortgage market has grown strongly over the last decade
  • First time buyers have become a yet more important customer segment
  • Fixed rates are primarily used as a form of insurance

• Competitor market shares and developments
  • CBA and Westpac have tightened their grip on the mortgage market
  • Each major banks' mortgage customers have distinct attributes
  • The interest rate is a prime driver of customer acquisition
  • Mortgage stress is common for Australian mortgagors despite low default rates

• Customer acquisition and retention strategies
  • Mortgage innovation is slowly picking up in the Australian market
  • Mortgage brokers and the internet channel will continue to grow in importance
  • Institutions need to provide a smooth and seamless customer experience

MARKET SIZING AND KEY ISSUES

• The Australian mortgage market has grown strongly over the last decade
  • Outstanding housing credit now exceeds A$1 trillion
  • Outstanding credit has continued to grow in the last two years despite an uncertain economic environment
  • Lending commitments have grown over the last decade but fell in early 2008
  • Lending commitments bounced back in early 2009 as a result of strong first time buyer demand
  • Housing leverage has increased
  • Property prices have risen and converged between state capitals
  • Household mortgage fees yield over A$1 billion for Australian banks
  • Mortgage lending is forecasted to grow to A$331 billion by 2013

• First time buyers have become a yet more important customer segment
  • First time buyers have propped up the mortgage market
  • Investor market activity has abated somewhat since its 2003 peak
  • Refinancing activity has stabilized after a long period of growth
  • Most mortgagors expect to keep their mortgage with their current provider for 10 years or more
  • Most mortgagors had over 10% deposit when taking out their main mortgage

• Fixed rates are primarily used as a form of insurance
  • Interest rates have fallen since their 2008 peak
  • Average fixed rates exceed average standard rates as the markets expect a rising cash rate
  • Mortgagors are more likely to fix their mortgage rate when interest rates are high

COMPETITOR MARKET SHARES AND DEVELOPMENTS

• CBA and Westpac have tightened their grip on the mortgage market
  • CBA continues its dominance as the largest individual brand for mortgages
  • CBA and Westpac combined hold a 46% market share of outstanding Australian mortgages
  • CBA and Westpac have had success with the first home buyer segment by providing perceived security

• Each major banks' mortgage customers have distinct attributes
  • NAB customers are more likely to have investment properties and several mortgages
  • St.George has a strong presence in basic mortgages
  • ANZ customers are more likely to have used a mortgage broker
  • CBA has the highest proportion of new mortgagors
  • Westpac customers perceive themselves as more loyal
  • NAB has effectively cross-sold other financial products to its mortgage customers

• Perceived safety affects cross-selling and choice of rate type
  • CBA and NAB customers are especially likely to have several different products with the institution
  • CBA has benefitted from cross-selling mortgages to transaction account customers
  • St.George customers are the most likely to have a fixed rate loan

• Mortgage stress is relatively common for Australian mortgagors despite low default rates
  • ANZ customers are the most likely to express currently experiencing mortgage stress
  • CBA customers are the most likely to expect future mortgage payments to become difficult
  • 44% of ANZ mortgagors claim to have cut back on luxury spending to afford their mortgage
  • ANZ mortgagors are more likely to incur further debt and look to sell property
  • Satisfaction with mortgage providers has fallen and converged between providers

CUSTOMER ACQUISITION AND RETENTION STRATEGIES

• Institutions need to provide a smooth and seamless customer experience
  • The backlog of mortgage applications has highlighted the importance of turnaround times
  • Multiple products held with the same institution can offer both advantages and disadvantages
  • Increasing competition will ensure pricing remains a key aspect driving consumer choice

• Mortgage innovation is slowly picking up in the Australian market
  • Bankwest has launched a capped rate product
  • ING DIRECT is launching a new offset product through the broker channel
  • Macquarie Bank is considering reentering the market
  • There is room for further innovation in Australia based on UK experiences

• Mortgage brokers and the internet channel will continue to grow in importance
  • The broker channel will be a key focus for incumbents and new entrants alike
  • The internet channel will continue to slowly grow in importance

APPENDIX

• Supplementary data
• Definitions
  • Balances outstanding
  • CAGR
  • Cash rate target
  • Gross advances
  • Lending commitments
  • Mortgage manager
  • Mortgage offset account
  • Non-conforming

• Methodology
• Further reading
• Ask the analyst
• Datamonitor consulting
• Disclaimer

TABLES

• Table: Outstanding housing loans on the books of banks, August 2009
• Table: Outstanding housing loans on the books of banks, August 2009
• Table: Cross-selling to mortgage customers, April 2009
• Table: CBA customers are the most likely to have different financial products with CBA, April 2009
• Table: Cross-selling to mortgage customers, April 2009
• Table: Fixed rate schedule for different combinations of LTV and loan fixed term at Nationwide
• Table: Fixed rate schedule for mortgages with a two year fixed rate at Nationwide
• Table: Household credit aggregates, January 2000 - July 2009
• Table: Housing credit aggregates, January 2000 - July 2009
• Table: Monthly housing lending commitments, January 2000 - July 2009
• Table: Total housing debt to housing asset ratio, March 2000 - March 2009
• Table: Aggregate interest payments to income ratio, March 2000 - June 2009
• Table: Monthly amount paid on main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Price index of established homes in the capital cities, March 2004 - June 2009
• Table: Median price of established house transfers in five capital cities, March 2004 - December 2008
• Table: Bank mortgage fees from households, 2000 - 2008
• Table: Housing lending commitment forecasts, 2000 - 2013f
• Table: First time buyer proportion of owner-occupier lending commitments, January 2000 - July 2009
• Table: Monthly lending commitments, January 2000 - July 2009
• Table: Investor proportion of lending, January 2000 - July 2009
• Table: Refinancing as a proportion of owner-occupier lending commitments, January 2000 - July 2009
• Table: Time held main mortgage with current mortgage provider, April 2009
• Table: Time mortgage is expected to be held with current provider, April 2009
• Table: Deposit when taking out main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Source of deposit for main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Cash rate target, January 2000 - October 2009
• Table: Average bank mortgage rates, January 2004 - August 2009
• Table: Rate type of main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Fixed rate proportion of owner-occupier lending commitments, January 2000 - July 2009
• Table: Provider of main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Outstanding housing loans on the books of banks, August 2009
• Table: Market shares of outstanding mortgages, August 2009
• Table: Number of different financial products held with each institution by its customers, April 2009
• Table: Number of mortgages held by customers with different main mortgage providers, April 2009
• Table: Investment properties held by customers with different main mortgage providers, April 2009
• Table: Monthly amount spent on main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Features of main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Current size of main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Current size of main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Proportion of main mortgage customers that used broker for main mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Sources of information used when choosing main mortgage provider, April 2009
• Table: Propensity to use mortgage broker for new mortgage, April 2009
• Table: Time held main mortgage with current mortgage provider, April 2009 eBestmortgageremortgages Best Mortgage ReMortgages D Comodity A Szh 1 Best Mortgage ReMortgages °ÄÖÞ·¿´ûÊг¡ - GIIj c Best Mortgage ReMortgages Best Mortgage ReMortgages kBestmortgageremortgages Best Mortgage ReMortgages D Comodity A Szh 1 Best Mortgage ReMortgages °ÄÖÞ·¿´ûÊг¡ - GIIr Payday Best Mortgage ReMortgages